Understanding Complexity in Chaos

Understanding Complexity in Chaos

Written by Paulina Kaminski, MPH, Associate at Oxeon Partners

From media coverage to our social networks, the world has been left in awe of the sheer magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic. We are mystified that something so small can paralyze our everyday lives and how quickly a global society became affected. Everywhere we turn, information swarms toward us with one common theme throughout: intensity. Mortality and morbidity statistics show the devastating intensity of disease transmission. Morality fights back with heartwarming stories of heroic deeds from public health officials to food suppliers. And mourning glooms overhead, inching ever closer to our own social spheres. Our visceral positive and negative reactions to the pandemic are met with equally severe questions. How, with health infrastructure, technologies, and data available, could something like this happen? Why does the pandemic continue to grow? 

Unfortunately, the chaos and commotion following the pandemic has bred mixed messages on why and how to curb transmission rates in the future. Simple messages like “stay at home” and “do your civic duty to flatten the curve” are given no solid underpinning to distinguish fact from fiction; the general public navigates a sea of recommendations and is often blown off course by a myriad of uncertain facts. While we take steps forward to protect ourselves, our families, our neighbors, and our health systems, we balance on a delicate tightrope between science-based evidence and the byproducts of misinformation.

So how do we proceed? As an epidemiologist, the answer points to one sobering reality: we must recognize complexity amidst chaos. For example, the phrase “flatten the curve” has been used manifold since the pandemic began. Its message is simple: taking recommended precautions will lower the epidemic curve of disease. It is this simplicity that also breeds confusion. Which epidemic curve? Across the world, the United States, or my home town? What distribution - persons who have died, who are confirmed cases, or who are suspected cases? What risk factors are we considering - healthy infants, immunocompromised elderly, college graduates partying on California beaches? 

How we answer any one of the questions above dictates which curve begins to flatten and how long it will take to reach endemic levels. Simplistic portrayals of information downplay the interconnectivity of infection across geography, age, and health status - a link that drives our awe at the sheer impact of this pandemic. To flatten “the curve” we need to start by defining which curve and build plans and strategies to mobilize resources to create a rippling improvement in the wellbeing of other subpopulations. Without this concentrated effort and mindset, steps taken to relax existing shelter-in-place policies or minimize health care provisions will only compromise the welfare of all.

We already see these pervasive efforts readily permeating our social spheres, each setting efforts in motion to “flatten” their respective curves; cities cheer in solidarity for healthcare workers, families distribute homemade masks, and workplaces leverage existing strengths and capabilities. At Oxeon, we have seen this firsthand; the power of the network has been undeniable as we’ve seen candidates, investors, leadership teams, and employees uniting to form a COVID-19 Coalition to coordinate PPE supplies, food delivery, testing, and other initiatives to help the city’s most vulnerable during this harrowing time. It is when we’ve appropriately identified a unified goal to accomplish that we see the greatest results. 

When considering the chaos of the epidemic at hand, a step towards a solution to the many issues our world is facing must be taken by acknowledging complexity and answering with an effort of equal strength.